Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 6-30-2024 (2024)

TheHouston Astroswill visit theNew York Metson Sunday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET.

Houston (40-41 SU, 40-41 RL, and 29-48-4 O/U) hasn't named a probable starter. While early indications pointed to a bullpen game, recent speculation suggests the club could call up left-hander Eric Lauer, per Matt Kawahara of theHouston Chronicle.

New York (40-39 SU, 40-39 RL, and 41-36-2 O/U) is turning to right-hander Luis Severino. The 30-year-old is 5-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his 15 starts.

*Article published before the conclusion of Saturday's game.

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Houston is on the rise

The Astros lost game one of the series, halting their recent hot streak. The visitors had won seven straight games before Friday's 7-2 loss in Queens.

Houston ranks 8th in OBP (.322), 5th in OPS (.744), 8th in home runs (95), and 13th in RBI (353). The Astros' bullpen has a 4.07 ERA (18th) and 1.30 WHIP (22nd) this season.

The H-Town bullpen sports a 3.76 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The unit has allowed 34 home runs and has a 286:113 K:BB ratio this season. The team may also decide to call up Lauer to make the spot start. The 29-year-old last pitched in the big leagues for Milwaukee last year, posting a 4-6 record in ten appearances (nine starts) with a 6.56 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. He had a 43:24 K:BB ratio in 46.2 total innings. Lauer has made 14 appearances (11 starts) at the Triple-A level this year, pitching to a 3-4 record with a 6.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 53.1 total innings.

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No one wants to play the Mets right now

New York has been one of the hottest teams in baseball this month, posting a 16-6 record. It was a significant bounce-back from a club that went 9-19 in May.

The Mets rank 6th in OBP (.324), 6th in OPS (.741), 4th in home runs (100), and 11th in RBI (366). NY's pitching staff sports a 4.06 ERA (17th) and 1.31 WHIP (23rd).

Severino will toe the slab for the home team on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. In his last start, the ninth-year pro held the Cubs to three hits and zero runs with ten strikeouts in a six-inning victory. He is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA this month (four starts) and 3-1 with a 2.47 ERA at home (eight starts) this season. Sevy faced Houston twice last year, allowing nine total runs in eight combined frames. He is 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Astros.

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Best Bets for Houston Astros vs. New York Mets

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Mets have been red hot in June, covering the run line in 14 of their 22 games (63.6%), including five of their last six (before Saturday's action). Severino has been a key part of that success, allowing one or no runs in three of his four June starts. He should continue to roll tomorrow against an Astros team that has as many strikeouts (24) as hits in 94 combined career ABs against him.

With the Astros likely to be at a disadvantage through the first five innings on the mound, I value a wager on the Metropolitans to win and cover the run line as home favorites. There is a palpable energy with this ballclub right now and I will ride that momentum to a winning wager tomorrow. If Lauer pitches, the Mets' slash line against southpaws (.263 BA/.332 OBP/.442 SLG/.774 OPS) is encouraging, and if the visitors opt for a bullpen game, I doubt the Mets will stagnate at the plate (.289/.363/.520/.883 in June).

Prediction: Mets RL (-1.5)

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The over is my prediction for the total in Sunday's matinee game between Houston and New York. Both teams have been hot this month, as Houston is slashing .278/.323/.453/.776 and scoring 5.0 runs per game, and New York is averaging 6.4 runs per game. The visitors slash .278/.334/.446/.780 (4.6 runs/game) in day games, and the Mets average 4.9 runs under the sun, too.

The Astros will either have a spot starter or several relievers take the mound, which is hardly encouraging for under bettors. Severino has been mostly solid but did allow six runs on eight hits on June 18 versus Texas. He must be careful against the Astros' sluggers, which could limit him to fewer than six innings. The Mets' bullpen is solid, but closer Edwin Diaz is suspended.

Bet on a high-scoring affair on Sunday in Queens!

Prediction: Over

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I jumped into sports betting headfirst due to an irresistible call to action. I am a sports writer by trade, earning my B.A. in Journalism with a sports reporting concentration from Michigan State in 2012. With my journalism background, I combine thorough research with a keen eye for hidden value to generate consistent profits for my clients. In my free time, I enjoy talking "shop" with like-minded people. This allows me to see different angles and avoid traps that derail my progress. In short, their insight and intuition assist or deter my decision-making process. The pitfalls to avoid in sports gambling are following the crowd, assumptions, gullibility, and lack of accountability. A bettor is never as hot or cold as their best and worst streaks. By dedicating yourself to obtaining knowledge, you will never feel like you know it all. At its core, sports betting is about intuition. When you can predict which way the wind will blow, you will never feel caught up in the current stream. Sometimes you need to be counterintuitive. Risk is in the mind of the beholder, but when you bet with me, you'll find that the reward justifies the wager!

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction, Preview, and Odds - 6-30-2024 (2024)
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